Inroducing Isaac

Charles

Captain Weather
#1
Hi folks,

This is the first storm this year that may impact the US. Probably FL or the eastern Gulf states. So, I'll post on this as it develops.



The 8 PM Tuesday update.

Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 21, 2012


...Isaac continues moving toward the Lesser Antilles...




summary of 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.5n 54.9w
about 435 mi...700 km E of Guadeloupe
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...W or 275 degrees at 17 mph...28 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...


none.


Summary of watches and warnings in effect...


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe and the surrounding islands...and St. Martin
* St. Kitts...Nevis...Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...and Anguilla
* Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Maarten


a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico...Vieques...Culebra...and the U.S. Virgin Islands


a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.


Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should monitor the
progress of Isaac.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States...please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.




Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.5 north...longitude 54.9 west. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/h...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track...the center of Isaac should move through the
Leeward Islands Wednesday evening...and emerge over the eastern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday morning.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
to the northeast of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area by Wednesday afternoon...making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area by Thursday.


Rainfall...total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible
over the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands. Total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches are possible over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the northern Leeward Islands.
Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves.


Surf...dangerous surf and rip current conditions will affect the
windward and Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.




Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 PM AST.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

Read more at Tropical Storm Isaac : Public Advisory | Weather Underground

 

Charles

Captain Weather
#2
Wednesday at 5 AM advisory

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 57.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF
ISLA SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#4
Wednesday 11 AM advisory

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING IN HEADLINE

...RAINBANDS OF ISAAC SPREADING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 59.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AND OVR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#5


Wednesday 8 PM update

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PASS NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND APPROACH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#6
Thursday at 5 AM advisory

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 64.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS
REFORMED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING...
BUT A STEADY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA
BUOY INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ISAAC COULD STILL BECOME A
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND A NEARBY NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#8
Thursday at 11 AM advisory

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 65.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42060 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#9
Thursday 5 PM advisory

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
FOR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 67.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...MOVER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND APPROACH
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND BUOY DATA IS IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. NOAA BUOY
42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004.1 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA BY SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STORM SURGE IN PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#11
Friday at 5 AM

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...POORLY ORGANIZED ISAAC JOGS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND VILLA
CLARA
* ANDROS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC
WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL CUBA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND ANDROS
ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN CUBA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#13
Friday at 11 AM advisory


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING IN HEADLINE

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 70.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND VILLA
CLARA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...
PASS NEAR OR OVER HAITI TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN
CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#15
friday at 5 PM

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 71.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
JUPITER INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA
BEACH...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI
THIS EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT
AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Mbandy

Well-Known Member
#18
I haven't seen any announcements on itinerary changes yet Gayle. Shouldn't be many. I am thinking Carnival Legend might be a concern. Will they try to sneak her in and out of Tampa with the storm so close? As a Florida t/a I would doubt it but the experts at Carnival will know best.

It is a beautiful, clear night here in Central Florida tonight. We here are watching closely.

Thanks for the updates Charles!
 

Charles

Captain Weather
#19
Saturday 5 AM advisory

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...ISAAC EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF HAITI...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 73.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER ISAAC MOVES OVER EASTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...3 TO 5 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
 

Top