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Inroducing Isaac

Discussion in 'Community Message Board' started by Charles, Aug 21, 2012.

  1. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Saturday 11 AM


    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

    ...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
    PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W
    ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
    ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
    FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
    NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
    NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
    FOR JAMAICA.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * HAITI
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
    * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    * HAITI
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
    CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
    CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
    * THE BAHAMAS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
    OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
    RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA
    SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL
    NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
    EASTERN CUBA TODAY...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE
    NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
    SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS
    EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
    TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
    PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
    FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
    BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
    OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
    TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
    NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
    SUNDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
    SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA
    BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
    SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
    HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
    CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
    LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
     
  2. Mbandy

    Mbandy Well-Known Member

    Well, looks like I was correct about the Legend... I'll compile all the changes I have and post them in another thread...

    CARNIVAL LEGEND – 8/19/12 DEPARTURE
    The Port of Tampa is expected to close by 3:00 AM on Sunday. At this time, they are uncertain as to when the port will reopen. Therefore, we have made arrangements to dock at Port Canaveral instead, where we will arrive at 8:00 AM on Sunday. Busses will be available to take guests to the Port of Tampa or the Tampa airport. The parking garage at the port will be open. It will take approximately two and a half hours to the Port of Tampa from Port Canaveral.
    CARNIVAL LEGEND – 8/26/12 DEPARTURE
    Due to the expected port closure in Tampa, the Carnival Legend will dock in Port Canaveral on Sunday. We ask that guests proceed to the Port of Tampa and plan to arrive between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM. The parking garage at the port will be open to park your vehicle. We will have busses available to take you and your luggage to Port Canaveral. Please do not proceed to Port Canaveral directly as the ship will be docking in Tampa when we return next week.
    It will take approximately two and a half hours to Port Canaveral from the Port of Tampa and no adverse weather is expected. The last bus will depart from Tampa at 4:00 PM and we expect to sail at 8:00 PM.
    At this time, our itinerary remains unchanged. However, there is a possibility we may have to make changes, depending on the path of the storm.
     
  3. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Saturday at 5 PM

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

    ...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
    CUBA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.3N 76.0W
    ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
    ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF NASSAU
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
    NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
    * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * HAITI
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
    CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
    CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
    * THE BAHAMAS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
    OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
    RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
    ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
    OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
    TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
    ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
    REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
    AIRCRAFT AND CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
    TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
    PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
    FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
    TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
    SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
    THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
    * FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
    HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
    CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
    LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
     
  4. sage

    sage Well-Known Member

    Thank you Charles for the updates. We here in Florida are waiting to see exactly where he will go.
     
  5. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    [​IMG]

    Saturday 8 PM update

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    800 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

    ...ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
    CUBA...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.7N 76.7W
    ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
    ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
    * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * HAITI
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
    CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
    CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
    * THE BAHAMAS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
    24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
    BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
    ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE ALONG OR
    JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR
    OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ISAAC IS
    FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
    MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
    ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
    REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74
    KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/H...WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE
    PAST FEW HOURS AT GUANTANAMO BAY NAVAL AIR STATION IN EASTERN CUBA.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
    TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
    PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
    FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
    TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
    SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN
    THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
    * FLA WEST COAST WITHIN WATCH AREA INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
    SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
    HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
    CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
    LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
     
  6. Mbandy

    Mbandy Well-Known Member

    A beautiful night here in central Florida. Clear skies and a lovely half moon. Some say, "The calm before the storm".

    Keep the updates coming Charles and I'll post what I can.

    Thanks as always...
     
  7. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Sunday at 5 AM

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 21
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    ...ISAAC A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
    LATER TODAY...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.1N 79.0W
    ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
    RIVER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
    NEW ORLEANS.

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
    ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO INDIAN
    PASS.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY
    * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
    * THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT
    INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
    CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
    CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
    * THE BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
    BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
    THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
    NORTH COAST OF CUBA THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
    KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO ON MONDAY.

    DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
    KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR
    HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 995
    MB...29.38 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
    KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ANDROS ISLAND ON
    SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
    NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...WITH TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
    TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THIS MORNING.
    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG
    THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN
    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
    THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
    * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
    INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
    CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
    OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN
     
  8. Cruise cutie

    Cruise cutie Well-Known Member

    Isaac is turning nastier...:bawl:...hope all in it's path stay safe..Thanks Charles....hugs..Joanne
     
  9. Krazy Kruizers

    Krazy Kruizers Holland America Specialist

    Thank you for the update Charles.

    I hear that the Allure of the Seas won't be docking today -- don't know if that is true.
     
  10. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Consolidating Isaac's Maps

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Sunday 8 AM update

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    800 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.5N 80.0W
    ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND HAS CHANGED
    THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS
    ISLAND.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
    * THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT
    INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS


    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
    CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
    CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
    * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
    BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
    THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
    INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
    OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
    UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H. A WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF CUBA
    THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND
    TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.


    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
    AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
    REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER. MOLASSES REEF RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 54
    MPH...87 KM/H.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 995
    MB...29.38 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
    KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
    NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
    LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
    IS DECREASING.

    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
    FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
    THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
    * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
    INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
    CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
    OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2012
  12. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    The maps just above are current

    Sunday 11 AM advisory


    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 22
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    ...ISAAC LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W
    ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF HAVANA CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH
    SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS DISCONTINUED.

    THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
    TO JUST EAST OF MORGAN CITY...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
    AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
    CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
    GUANTANAMO.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA
    * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
    BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
    THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23. NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
    LOWER FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE
    EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.


    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
    AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
    REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H...WAS REPORTED IN
    POMPANO BEACH...AND A WIND GUST TO 59 MPH...95 KM/H WAS REPORTED IN
    KENDALL.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
    KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
    NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
    FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
    THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...


    * CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
    * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
    INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
    KEYS.


    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
    CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
    OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2012
  13. sage

    sage Well-Known Member

    Thank you Charles for the updates. The port of Miamia and Ft. Lauderdale closed last night.
     
  14. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Sunday at 2 PM

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    200 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    ...ISAAC HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W
    ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
    * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * FLORIDA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA
    * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
    REEF
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
    BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
    THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF ISAAC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
    LOWER FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE
    EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISAAC BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE
    IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DECREASING.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
    REPORTED AT VIRGINIA KEY.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
    KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
    NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
    SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
    FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
    THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
    * SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
    INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
    KEYS.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE
    FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
    MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
     
  15. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Sunday 5 PM advisory


    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 23
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    ...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W
    ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

    THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
    BEACH IS DISCONTINUED.

    THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
    FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

    THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
    BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING.

    THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
    NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO
    DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
    PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY IS
    DISCONTINUED.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
    COAST AND FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
    * FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
    YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
    GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
    IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
    CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
    MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
    NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.


    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
    TWO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...NEAR KEY WEST...REPORTED A
    WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND
    GUST TO 66 MPH...106 KM/H.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
    KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
    INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
    ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.


    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
    * REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE
    FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
    MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2012
  16. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Sunday at 8 PM update

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    800 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    ...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.1N 82.6W
    ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
    COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
    * FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
    PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
    YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A
    GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
    IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
    CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
    MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
    NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
    TWO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA HURRICANE
    HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
    KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
    INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
    ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
    * REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
    * CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
    * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA
    PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
    CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
    INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
     
  17. Mbandy

    Mbandy Well-Known Member

    Thanks for the updates Charles.

    Isaac has been no big deal in central Florida so far. It has been cloudy with a few sprinkles today. It is odd to see the clouds moving east to west. It's usually the opposite direction. It just started sprinkling again a few minutes ago. We're supposed to get rain & wind overnight and in to tomorrow.

    Thanks again Charles!
     
  18. TexasSue

    TexasSue Well-Known Member

    Thanks for the update - just waiting to see where it lands. Susan
     
  19. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Monday at 5 AM advisory

    The maps above are up to date

    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 25
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    500 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

    ...ISAAC CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...NEW
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.2N 84.2W
    ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
    ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
    MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

    A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN
    CITY LOUISIANA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF SABINE PASS TO
    WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

    THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM EAST OF DESTIN
    TO INDIAN PASS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE EAST
    COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF OCEAN REEF AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
    AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST
    * FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
    * EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
    * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
    OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
    RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
    INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
    LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
    THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
    IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
    GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE
    HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
    ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390
    KM...FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
    AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
    CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
    WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
    THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

    * SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...6 TO 12 FT
    * SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
    * FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
    * FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
    * SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 2 FT

    THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
    OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
    DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
    COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA
    KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN
    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

    RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
    WHERE ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
    SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
    THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TORNADO
    THREAT WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
    MORNING.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
    AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
    FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
    PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
    FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN
     
  20. Krazy Kruizers

    Krazy Kruizers Holland America Specialist

    Thank you for the update Charles.

    Looks as though New Orleans could get hit hard -- again.
     

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