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TWC's "Tor:Con" (Tornado Condition) Index

ShipMaven

Forever Remembered
#1
by Dr. Greg Forbes, Tornado Expert

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

  • 8: High probability of a tornado
  • 6: Moderate possibility of a tornado
  • 4: Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
  • 2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
  • 0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm



Updated: April 25, 2011 2:00 pm ET
Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook
)The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.

Severe Weather Overview


On Monday an upper trough reaches the Gulf of Mexico moisture and generates a surface low. Wind shear and instability ahead of it will be very favorable for tornadoes (and worsen flood woes). One surface low forms over OK and heads northeast Monday and Tuesday, followed by another that forms in north TX Tuesday evening and again heads northeast. These lows and their cold front spread severe weather across a wide area through at least Wednesday.

Forecast for Monday, April 25

AL - northwest - 3 night
AR - 7
DC - 2
DE - 2
IL south - 4
IN southwest - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY west - 4
KY central - 3 to 4 night
LA northwest - 5 to 6
LA north - 4 night
MD - 2
MO south - 5
MO central - 3 to 4
MS north and west-central - 3 to 4 night
NJ south - 2
OH south half - 2 to 3
OK southeast - 6
OK northeast - 4
PA south - 3
TN west - 5
TN middle - 4
TX northeast quarter - 7
WV north half - 2


Forecast for Tuesday, April 26

AL northwest - 5 to 6
AR east - 4 to 5
AR south - 7
AR - 4 night
IL south - 3 to 4
IN east - 5
IN west-central and southwest - 4
KY - 5 to 6
LA north - 7
MI east and central - 3 to 4
MO extreme southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 5 to 6
NY southeast - 2
OH west - 5
OH east - 4
OK west - 2 to 3
OK central and east - 3 to 4 night
PA west - 3
TN west and middle - 6
TN east - 4
TX northeast - 6
TX east panhandle - 2 to 3
WV west - 3
other areas - 2 or less

Forecast for Wednesday, April 27

AL north - 7
AL south - 5
AR east - 4
DC - 3
FL west panhandle - 3 to 4
FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night
GA north - 5
GA west-central - 4
GA south and east-central - 3 to 4 night
IL south - 3
IN south and east-central - 3 to 4
KY east - 6
KY west - 4
LA west - 3 to 4
LA east - 4 to 5
MD west - 3 to 4
MI - southeast 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS west and north - 4
MS southeast - 5
NC west - 4
NC central - 3 to 4 night
NJ north - 2
NY - 2 to 3
OH - 4 to 5
PA - 3 to 4
SC west - 4
SC central and east - 3 to 4 night
TN middle - 7
TN west - 4 to 5
TN east - 5 to 6
VA west and north - 3
VT - 2
WV - 4 to 5
 

Corky

Well-Known Member
#4
Not looking good for Ky for sure in the 5-6 range. And I'll keep my fingers crossed for South AR & LA...as they are in the 7 range.

Right now, at 6:25 a.m., it is very, very windy, dark gray...and the birds I've been complaining about this morning have shut up. Not a good sign.