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TWC's "Tor:Con" (Tornado Condition) Index

Discussion in 'Community Message Board' started by ShipMaven, Apr 25, 2011.

  1. ShipMaven

    ShipMaven Forever Remembered

    by Dr. Greg Forbes, Tornado Expert

    TOR:CON Value Descriptions

    • 8: High probability of a tornado
    • 6: Moderate possibility of a tornado
    • 4: Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
    • 2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
    • 0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm



    Updated: April 25, 2011 2:00 pm ET
    Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook[​IMG])The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

    Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.

    Severe Weather Overview


    On Monday an upper trough reaches the Gulf of Mexico moisture and generates a surface low. Wind shear and instability ahead of it will be very favorable for tornadoes (and worsen flood woes). One surface low forms over OK and heads northeast Monday and Tuesday, followed by another that forms in north TX Tuesday evening and again heads northeast. These lows and their cold front spread severe weather across a wide area through at least Wednesday.

    Forecast for Monday, April 25

    AL - northwest - 3 night
    AR - 7
    DC - 2
    DE - 2
    IL south - 4
    IN southwest - 3
    KS southeast - 3
    KY west - 4
    KY central - 3 to 4 night
    LA northwest - 5 to 6
    LA north - 4 night
    MD - 2
    MO south - 5
    MO central - 3 to 4
    MS north and west-central - 3 to 4 night
    NJ south - 2
    OH south half - 2 to 3
    OK southeast - 6
    OK northeast - 4
    PA south - 3
    TN west - 5
    TN middle - 4
    TX northeast quarter - 7
    WV north half - 2


    Forecast for Tuesday, April 26

    AL northwest - 5 to 6
    AR east - 4 to 5
    AR south - 7
    AR - 4 night
    IL south - 3 to 4
    IN east - 5
    IN west-central and southwest - 4
    KY - 5 to 6
    LA north - 7
    MI east and central - 3 to 4
    MO extreme southeast - 3 to 4
    MS north - 5 to 6
    NY southeast - 2
    OH west - 5
    OH east - 4
    OK west - 2 to 3
    OK central and east - 3 to 4 night
    PA west - 3
    TN west and middle - 6
    TN east - 4
    TX northeast - 6
    TX east panhandle - 2 to 3
    WV west - 3
    other areas - 2 or less

    Forecast for Wednesday, April 27

    AL north - 7
    AL south - 5
    AR east - 4
    DC - 3
    FL west panhandle - 3 to 4
    FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night
    GA north - 5
    GA west-central - 4
    GA south and east-central - 3 to 4 night
    IL south - 3
    IN south and east-central - 3 to 4
    KY east - 6
    KY west - 4
    LA west - 3 to 4
    LA east - 4 to 5
    MD west - 3 to 4
    MI - southeast 3
    MO southeast - 3 to 4
    MS west and north - 4
    MS southeast - 5
    NC west - 4
    NC central - 3 to 4 night
    NJ north - 2
    NY - 2 to 3
    OH - 4 to 5
    PA - 3 to 4
    SC west - 4
    SC central and east - 3 to 4 night
    TN middle - 7
    TN west - 4 to 5
    TN east - 5 to 6
    VA west and north - 3
    VT - 2
    WV - 4 to 5
     
  2. Jeanie

    Jeanie Well-Known Member

    Thanks for the info
     
  3. Charles

    Charles Captain Weather

    Good info. Thanks

    Now the WC needs to develop a map with that information.

    c
     
  4. Corky

    Corky Well-Known Member

    Not looking good for Ky for sure in the 5-6 range. And I'll keep my fingers crossed for South AR & LA...as they are in the 7 range.

    Right now, at 6:25 a.m., it is very, very windy, dark gray...and the birds I've been complaining about this morning have shut up. Not a good sign.
     
  5. Krazy Kruizers

    Krazy Kruizers Holland America Specialist

    thanks mary ann

    we sure have been under tornado warnings a lot for this time of the year in our area
     
  6. Corky

    Corky Well-Known Member

    KK - I say enough is enough!!
     
  7. KathyC

    KathyC Well-Known Member

    I like this simple formula for tornado watches; thanks for the info.
     

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